Big Reduction in Imports within 20 years?
America gets about 20% of its oil imports from the Middle East. About 60% of America's oil is imported. So it means that about 12% of America's oil useage comes from imports. A 75% cut in that number as Bushed hoped for in his state of the union address represents an 8% cut in imports. This is certainly possible even likely with better automobile technology including hybrids and the full electrification of all auxilaries including the valves.
In other words if the government did nothing it is likely though the natural improvement of technology that the goal would be met.
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It would actually be a remarkable achievement considering the steady increase of automobile use and increase in population. It will probably, by 2025 at least, be accomplished a fortiari by the reduced production as peak oil fades into our rearview mirror.
An annoying aspect of all these discussions about dependence on Middle Eastern oil is that it doesn't really matter where the oil comes from. Oil is like money. It's fungible. If we get more oil from Nigeria in order to eliminate dependence on Saudi Arabia, then Saudi Arabia will not sell a barrel less. They'll just sell to different customers who are not getting their oil from Nigeria anymore.
All these discussions about peak oil forget to add in how the amount of oil in the world is determined.
It is possible we have reached the peak of $20 dollar oil, while still having 500 years worth of $60 oil.
Yeh, I know, Canadian tar sands are economic at some point. If it gets expensive enough, maybe we could dig mines into depleted wells to squeeze out the dregs. Or convert coal to oil. Well, we can't burn it all anyway. The CO2 is too risky. Sooner or later, we have to take the next step. If we can't get it together to make fusion work, then we have to rely on fission. If we don't start building nuclear power plants now, we will come to regret it. Wind and solar is fine, but it's not going to do the job.
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