tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post6715019912259006939..comments2024-03-19T01:48:39.709+00:00Comments on Power and Control: Better Than Printing Money?M. Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09508934110558197375noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-8955496300668155732008-06-25T16:28:00.000+00:002008-06-25T16:28:00.000+00:00Oil: There are several factors increasing the pri...Oil: There are several factors increasing the price, but it still comes down to increased demand and reduced supply. The easy/cheap oil is being used up. There is still lots of oil left, it just requires more effort: politically and bureaucratically as much as physically. <BR/><BR/>The money pouring into the oil industry right now will end up increasing the supply. The price may not return to $20/barrel, but it will drop significantly. This cycle has happened before.<BR/><BR/>Other resources: I agree that the Earth is limited. I also believe that we've barely scratched the surface and our limits are mostly self-imposed. And if we don't want to do any more resource-scratching down here, there are always the asteroids. We are not doomed to an ever-shrinking pie.ZenDrakenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11885610651925912000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-9441195432048454732008-06-24T09:18:00.000+00:002008-06-24T09:18:00.000+00:00If the demand increases, the price will increase. ...<I>If the demand increases, the price will increase. More money will then go into extracting gallium, the price will lower, etc. Perhaps the web site you are referencing is only looking at the supply side.</I><BR/><BR/>The same argument could be made about oil : it's just not going to happen.<BR/><BR/>The elements for which this can go on for a while are very limited, and limited to primary supernova remnants : we have them in abundance, and it's trivial to find more :<BR/><BR/>-> hydrogen<BR/>-> helium<BR/>-> carbon<BR/>-> oxygen<BR/>-> neon, natrium, magnesium, aluminum<BR/>-> silicium, sulphur, argon, calcium<BR/>-> iron<BR/><BR/>And here the bucket stops. All other elements are in terminally short supply. We have a tiny quantity, perhaps a few thousand tons accessible, and that's it ...<BR/><BR/>Economics trumps politics, I agree. But nature trumps economics : if there isn't any more, no amount of money will increase supply.cdehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09263113168316339397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-13468636979862384462008-06-23T15:57:00.000+00:002008-06-23T15:57:00.000+00:00If there was a shortage of gallium compared to dem...If there was a shortage of gallium compared to demand, the price would have increased. The price and mining data taken together indicate that the overall demand for gallium has decreased in recent years.<BR/><BR/>If the demand increases, the price will increase. More money will then go into extracting gallium, the price will lower, etc. Perhaps the web site you are referencing is only looking at the supply side.<BR/><BR/>If you are into commodities trading (and the associated risk), gallium may be worth looking at now.<BR/><BR/>Also: Gallium is a byproduct of aluminum smelting. See: http://www.webelements.com/gallium/. It's worth noting that aluminum is the second most abundant element in the Earth's crust, and gallium seems to exist in the Earth's crust in a specific ratio with aluminum.ZenDrakenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11885610651925912000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-10437385274907182008-06-22T09:00:00.000+00:002008-06-22T09:00:00.000+00:00Well I got most of the data from here :http://euro...Well I got most of the data from here :<BR/><BR/>http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3086<BR/><BR/>Here's the graph for gallium mining, apparently we're not out of it yet, but normally the descent should be steeper than the ascent. Meaning we'll be basically out of gallium by 2023.<BR/><BR/>http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Fig5_bardi_pagani_Ga.jpg<BR/><BR/>If you follow the "export country model", which basically states that with the (possible) exception of America (and the exception of Iran, but that's only because they aren't capable of processing crude oil), all nations have hoarded ALL their reserves of a certain chemical very quickly after they hit peak : within 5-10 years after peak production, exports hit zero. Case studies (for oil) : Indonesia, UK, ...cdehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09263113168316339397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-87726438757278715582008-06-21T20:41:00.000+00:002008-06-21T20:41:00.000+00:00Zendraken's link informs that indium is mainly obt...Zendraken's link informs that indium is mainly obtained as a by-product of zinc refining. There's no shortage of zinc. I think it was quoted as being 23rd in abundance of common minerals, and <EM>in tonnage produced, stands fourth among all metals in world production - being exceeded only by iron, aluminum, and copper.</EM><BR/><BR/>I'd agree the indium data, by inference, "does not seem alarming in any way."<BR/><BR/>The <EM>oil has run out</EM> argument is just flat wrong.linearthinkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05201292791445921817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-35570028848900805522008-06-21T17:28:00.000+00:002008-06-21T17:28:00.000+00:00Take a look at the Minerals Yearbooks at this site...Take a look at the Minerals Yearbooks at this site: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/<BR/><BR/>Gallium prices have actually decreased over the last 10 years, which suggests that there is enough gallium out there.<BR/><BR/>The indium data for 2006 is a little less clear, but does not seem alarming in any way.<BR/><BR/>Besides all that, Nanosolar has probably done their homework in terms of feedstock prices and availability. The sky is not falling.ZenDrakenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11885610651925912000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-8936057851365052102008-06-21T16:26:00.000+00:002008-06-21T16:26:00.000+00:00Oh I forgot Fe and Cu are still in abundant supply...Oh I forgot Fe and Cu are still in abundant supply too, so I guess you could incorporate them too.cdehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09263113168316339397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-72392494197387917242008-06-21T13:48:00.000+00:002008-06-21T13:48:00.000+00:00Just one huge problem ... all those compounds they...Just one huge problem ... all those compounds they use are much more in depletion than oil.<BR/><BR/>Great technology. Good use for the remaining reserves. But we won't be able to produce like this for very long.<BR/><BR/>Oil "has run out". <BR/><BR/>To be honest, I don't know (yet) what diselenide is and how much of it is left, but we're next to out of gallium and out of indium.<BR/><BR/>IF we're to have a solar panel economy, the solar panels will have to be organic (made of C-H-N-O)cdehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09263113168316339397noreply@blogger.com