tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post4779174826871957924..comments2024-03-19T01:48:39.709+00:00Comments on Power and Control: Oil Supply And DemandM. Simonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09508934110558197375noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-70500411209229906882009-11-02T23:20:26.704+00:002009-11-02T23:20:26.704+00:00RE: Russia
I guess I am not as down on Russia as ...RE: Russia<br /><br />I guess I am not as down on Russia as Neil is.<br /><br />I think that over the long term, looking out 50-years, they want to raise their GDP per-person and make things better for their people. <br /><br />They have over 60 billion barrels proved reserves of crude oil and almost 150 trillion cubic feet of natural gas proved reserves. Both of these numbers will probably go up as Arctic drilling techniques are improved. They also have a basket full of other natural resources, including the number one, water.<br /><br />I think that their long term interests will come to be that they want to sell those assets to China, India, and Western Europe.<br /><br />I don't really think that they want to jeopardize this.<br /><br />Right now, when they turn on the news all they hear is "China" and the "United States". So, they have a problem because they used to get a lot of attention back in the day. They want publicity too. They want respect. They want to be heard. So, they say things that basic equate to: "Don't forget about us."<br /><br />But, I don't think they will do anything drastic because of one thing: greed.<br /><br />The country is controlled by a group of billionaires who like having inside information and dirt on other people, and will do things to protect that power and wealth.<br /><br />So, if we give them some attention (they are like a child), I think that their goals will align with us, they want a stable environment in which to sell their goods into. They are dependent on it. The lower oil and NG prices go, the more their economy hurts. <br /><br />Now, that doesn't mean that there won't be individuals within the country that don't want more for themselves. The biggest problem within the country (and the one that Vladimir Putin is most afraid of) is infighting. <br /><br />So, there will be occasional power struggles within the country over money, and one of these might "go off the reservation." But, the majority on the whole want a steady rising economy.<br /><br />This biggest problem Russia has is the level of corruption. All countries have corruptions, bribes, scandals, crime, etc. But, what matters is the percentage break-point. If Russia lets the corruption go to far they will become the next Argentina (a country that has had tremendous potential for years, but can't seem to get past the break point of corruption).<br /><br />Russia must realize that they must keep corruption to a certain level and try to control it or it will spin their economy around and around.<br /><br />Lets face it, with most countries in the world the leadership is just the most powerful mob that is in control at the time. But, if they want long term stability they must at least share a little with the masses. They can't let things get to lop-sided. <br /><br />I think Putin knows this fact very well. Putin maybe a lot of things, but he is not dumb.<br /><br />I guess I just don't think that Putin or Russia wants a war with anybody. They have assets and know they can sell those over the next 100 years. I can see border disputes over these resources, like the one they have with Finland and Norway over the offshore rights in the Arctic Ocean. Or over other resources on their southern border. But, for the most part, they know where the bread is buttered. <br /><br />So, I guess I am not as negative as you are. And, if they can get leadership that takes a long-term view, they could actually be sitting pretty with declining birth rates and resources to sell to the rest of the world.Don-n-ABQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07512839576712216336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-10423114392010447452009-11-02T21:47:55.700+00:002009-11-02T21:47:55.700+00:00Looking at the EIA reports, it seems that Coal is ...Looking at the EIA reports, it seems that Coal is not really in competition with Oil, some with Gas.<br /><br />I.e., Coal is primarily a fuel used to make electricity, and it's the cheapest one. Gas is also used to generate electricity, it's not quite as cheap as coal, but you can fire up a gas turbine quickly.<br /><br />Oil's big usage is in transportation fuels.<br /><br />If fusion comes in, the biggest impact is on Coal and Gas, not Oil. Same results if modular late Generation 3 or Generation 4 fission reactors are deployed in large numbers.<br /><br />In fact, that is an issue that must be addressed if Coal is to be retired: What do the Coal miners do for a living? Until there is a good answer for that, the Members of Congress from the major Coal producing states will do their best to block anything that hurts the Coal industry.LarryDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10955273945502612268noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-58037397434408476482009-11-01T20:58:59.603+00:002009-11-01T20:58:59.603+00:00Simon -
Oh, I agree; in the medium-to-long term,...Simon - <br /><br />Oh, I agree; in the medium-to-long term, Russia is in deep doo-doo. But right now, they could pretty easily start a war. The concern is that perhaps the Obama administration is mostly thinking about the long term, and underestimating the pain that Russia can bring to bear in the here-and-now.<br /><br />Or, perhaps they know something about Russia that I do not. I'm not predicting anything--I'm just noting that it's possible the run-up in oil prices is partly a result of the heightened risk of supply disruptions, not just bubble behavior.Neilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01039999711990701720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-70210350943792243602009-11-01T20:00:56.981+00:002009-11-01T20:00:56.981+00:00Matt, did you have any thoughts about Particle Dri...Matt, did you have any thoughts about Particle Drilling Technologies?Don-n-ABQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07512839576712216336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-30786989472658271202009-11-01T18:44:11.769+00:002009-11-01T18:44:11.769+00:00Neil,
There is a reason why Russia gets no respec...Neil,<br /><br />There is a reason why Russia gets no respect.<br /><br />1. Their hapless effort in Georia<br />2. Their population is declining at the rate of 1 million a year<br /><br />It is just a matter of waiting until they are weak enough to pick the carcass.<br /><br />You can't do business with them. <br /><br />Then read this about the oil powers:<br /><br /><a href="http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2007/01/oil-outlook.html" rel="nofollow">Oil Outlook</a><br /><br />It is long but very good.M. Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09508934110558197375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-64618913899463355292009-11-01T07:43:17.824+00:002009-11-01T07:43:17.824+00:00The technological stuff is interesting in the medi...The technological stuff is interesting in the medium term, but there's a non-bubble reason why short-term oil prices might be rising. <br /><br />The negotiations over Iran's nuclear program are morphing into a crisis, and nobody but the Israelis seem to be in crisis mode. The Russians, Iranians, and the Obama Administration are all acting as though they're holding the high cards with no reason to compromise and no reason to back down. <br /><br />Russia is tacitly acknowledging they've been helping Iran with warhead designs, not acknowledging that Obama probably doesn't politically have the option of letting Iran get a bomb. V.P. Biden is touring East Europe not-so-subtly claiming that Russia's day is over and anybody that wants a "color revolution" can get it--not acknowledging that if Russia loses Ukraine and Georgia, soon there's not going to be a Russia anymore. Iran is acting crazy, as usual, not acknowledging that they've finally managed to truly scare the socks off the Israelis. If anybody at this table is bluffing, they're doing an awfully good job of it.<br /><br />What this means is that there is a heightened risk that one of these parties is going to mis-calculate and start a war. If there is a war, the first thing that's going to happen is that Iran is going to shut down the Straits of Hormuz to oil shipments.<br /><br />It's not for sure, but it's definitely a risk now. And it's a pretty good reason for floating reserves and high oil prices.<br /><br />Oh, and just in case you needed help staying up at night, the U.S. has begun preparations to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Neilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01039999711990701720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8282587.post-4338663714537486482009-11-01T00:11:35.067+00:002009-11-01T00:11:35.067+00:00A couple thoughts:
1) What ever happened to the f...A couple thoughts:<br /><br />1) What ever happened to the fine idea over at Particle Drilling Technologies?<br /><br />2) I am guessing that the E&Ps will have to come up with some major advances in drilling technology just to keep even with the ever increasing environmental scrutiny. The Naderites will increase drilling costs with new legislation, rules, and requirements to treat water, cap & trade, etc., so for ever new "green" rule from the EPAs out there, there will have to be a corresponding new technology cost cutting measure just to stay even. The long term net-result is they cancel each other out and the price of crude and NG don't change. But, if they don't offset the coming "green rules" with new tech the results could be disastrous and crude prices would go through the roof.Don-n-ABQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07512839576712216336noreply@blogger.com